Job and Employment Advice: 6 Tips for Increasing Job Prospects

US Job and Employment Opportunities are improving as the US exits a recession. Richard Berner, a managing director and co-head of Global Economics at US investment bank Morgan Stanley, says the recovery won’t be jobless, but gains will be tepid. MS expects annual job growth to average 1% (110,000 monthly) over 2010-11, labour-market indicators have improved, but employment has yet to turn up. Here are Richard’s thoughts on US employment opportunities:

  1. The long road ahead
  2. More important, Berner says there is a need for persistently strong economic and job growth over the next few years to regain the 8.4 million payroll jobs lost since December 2007, not to mention the 10.6 million jobs required to restore the employment rate (employment-population ratio) prevailing before the start of the Great Recession.
    Moreover, the US unemployment problem has become increasingly chronic. Two statistics document that fact: The median duration of unemployment has reached 20 weeks, more than twice the peak in the deep 1981-82 recession, and a record 41% of the unemployed have been jobless for six months or longer.
    MS outlined where job gains are likely to be over the next two years and why. It identifies four specific obstacles to hiring. Each of these hurdles has a cyclical and a structural dimension. For each, therefore, policies that might help foster economic growth and job creation both in the immediate future are discussed – – the cyclical dimension – – and for the longer run – – the structural part.

  3. Where will the jobs be?
  4. What sectors of the economy are likely to grow in 2010 and 2011, and by how much? How will employment growth vary in different regions of the country? What will be the likely state of the export market over the next two years, and the resulting impact on employment?

  5. Strong Sectors
  6. Advances in export, infrastructure, capital goods, energy and healthcare related industries likely will account for most of the job gains in the next 18-24 months. That forecast echoes Richard Berner’s views regarding the sources of growth in the US economy. The combination of strong global growth, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus and improving financial conditions will promote improvement in many of those industries. And rising demand for healthcare services continues. In contrast, employment in residential and commercial construction, retailing, and financial services likely will remain soft as those industries continue to restructure.

  7. Strong Regions
  8. Identifying regional strengths and weaknesses is difficult. For example, industries that likely will benefit from exports and other strong sectors are located in regions hard-hit by regional housing woes. Conversely, some regions that fared relatively well in the downturn, like the Midwest, are now doing less well. In MS’ view, the Pacific Northwest, parts of the Rockies and Upper Midwest, parts of the Southeast, and parts of the Southwest seem likely to be the strongest regions.

  9. Export markets and employment
  10. Berner projects gains in export volumes of around 10% to be sustained over 2010. Paced by their domestic demand, growth in many of America’s major trading partners in Asia and Latin America likely will average 6-7% this year, and Canada probably will expand at a faster pace than the US. Somewhat slower global growth seems likely in 2011 as the US and overseas policymakers exit from stimulus.
    In manufacturing, some 20% of employment in 2006 was directly or indirectly associated with exports, and Richard Berner expects that share to grow over the next two years. Capital equipment and industrial supplies exports likely will continue to do well, while consumer goods will represent a rising share of overseas demand.

  11. Obstacles to hiring
  12. MS says worries about the sustainability of recovery are legitimate and probably are holding hiring back. Such concerns are characteristic early in recovery, but this time they are worse because of the lingering fallout from the bursting of the housing and credit bubbles. As a result, it remains essential to pursue policies oriented towards reducing housing imbalances, reducing debt and improving the functioning of financial markets and financial institutions.

Source: Michael Hennigan, Founder and Editor of Finfacts


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